Super Bowl XLIV Preview: Colts-Saints

Head Coach Sean Payton leads the underdog New Orleans Saints against the Indianapolis Colts in Super Bowl XLIV

The 2009 NFL season themed, “Own the Moment”, will climax  with Super Bowl XLIV in South Florida as the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints take center stage in the biggest game in sports. The catchy Don King-esque box office selling theme for Super Bowl XLIV should be “History Book vs. Storybook”. 

The Colts have been one of the NFL’s cornerstone teams since their Batimore heyday with NFL legend quarterback Johnny Unitas in the late 1950’s.  In fact Unitas, who led the Colts to victory in the 1958 NFL Championship Game – some call it the Greatest Game Ever – definitely has passed his  winnning ways along to current Colts’ certain Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning, who already has led his team to a Super Bowl win back in 2006.  While the Colts have usually been a winning franchise — second Super Bowl in four years and their fourth trip in franchise history — the Saints have always been the NFL’s version of the heartbreak kids – only a 4-6 postseason record in an over 40-year franchise history.  Many years since their inception in 1967 have ended in disappointment for the folks in the Bayou – only ten winning seasons in franchise history. 

There was the brown paper bag wearing years back in the early 1980’s and Peyton’s father, Archie, also took a beating as the Saints starting quarterback during their struggling years (1971-1982).  But the Saints have perservered and now the city known for Mardi Gras is ready to put the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina behind it by the Saints bringing home a Super Bowl title in their team’s first trip to the Big Dance. “There’s no fan base that deserves a championship more than New Orleans and the ‘Who Dat’ nation,” said Brees.  “Just the bond that we have with them is special.  They give us strength.  They give us motivation.  We want to do it for them.” However former Saint Archie Manning will still root on his son’s Colts.  The former Ole Miss legend and Saints first overall pick in 1971 said of the upcoming Super Bowl match-up, “I’m pulling for the Colts 100 percent, it’s not even close”

“Super Bowl Sunday” is America’s unofficial holiday filled with fellowship, trash talk, and of course eating.  Everywhere you turn, people are talking about the Colts and Saints locking horns this Sunday.  Even my 80-year old plus grandmother, who usually is not in front of the television on Sunday’s watching NFL gridiron action, will be attending a Super Bowl party.  She and almost 200 hundred million other folks will be watching this Sunday as the upstart Saints led by former Heisman Trophy winner Reggie Bush take on the Colts and the NFL’s best pitchman, Peyton Manning.  It will be interesting to see if Super Bowl XLIV ends the ‘09 season with a bang or a blowout, which seems to have happened way too much in Super Bowl history.  One of the bigger storylines is that Manning will also be facing the team he grew-up rooting for, the Saints.

No matter how the Super Bowl ends, the 2009 NFL Season will be remembered for explosive offenses and will most likely be themed “The Year of the Quarterback”.   This season, 10 quarterbacks each passed for at least 4,000 yards, which is the most in a single season in NFL history – Texans’ Matt Schaub (4,770), Colts’ Peyton Manning (4,500), Cowboys’ Tony Romo (4,483), Packers’ Aaron Rodgers (4,434), Patriots’ Tom Brady (4,398), Saints’ Drew Brees (4,388), Steelers’ Ben Roethlisberger (4,328), Chargers’ Philip Rivers (4,254), Vikings’ Brett Favre (4,202) and NY Giants’ Eli Manning (4,021).  The previous record was seven in 2007.  Also twelve quarterbacks passed for at least 25 touchdowns this year, which is the most in a single season in NFL history – Brees (34), Favre (33), P. Manning (33), Rodgers (30), Schaub (29), Brady (28), Rivers (28), Bears’ Jay Culter (27), E. Manning (27), Roethlisberger (26), Romo (26) and Cardinals’ Kurt Warner (26). The previous record was 10 in 2007. 

Not surprisingly two of the quarterbacks who are both great leaders and can really fling-it, Manning and the Saints‘Drew Brees, will meet in Super Bowl XLIV.  Colts head coach Caldwell said of his on the field leader, “Peyton had just an outstanding game. He’s one of those guys that can adjust to different situations. … A real champion.”  Both teams, who seemed to be on a collision course earlier this season — combined 27-0 starts — showed their mettle by turning back extraordinary efforts by the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings in their respective Championship Games to earn tickets to the NFL’s biggest stage.  For a long time this year’s Super Bowl match-up seemed predestined as both of these teams remained undefeated teams through 14 weeks – first time two 13-0 teams in NFL history –  and an 18-0 undefeated showdown seemed very possible.  Of course any talk of the “Perfection” Bowl ended with the Saints losing to the Cowboys in Week 15 and the Colts choosing to “rest” their players in a Week 16 loss to the NY Jets. “Everything that’s happened previously, you can throw out the window,” said Caldwell.  The outstanding rookie head coach added, “Those records don’t matter.  All that matters is what happens from here on, and we know that we’re facing a solid team.” 

Though the match-up will be sans the undefeated part, many people’s intrigue around the Colts-Saints big game should be maximized by the NFL’s first No. 1 Seed battle since 1993 (Buffalo vs. Dallas in Super Bowl XXVIII).  Of course, the two aforementioned marquee quarterbacks taking the field for America’s Game, doesn’t hurt either.  This season, Manning became the NFL’s only 4-time MVP while Brees threw more regular season touchdowns (34) than anyone else in the league.  Offensive fireworks are sure to fly in Super Bowl XLIV as both teams can put up points while their defenses are not known to be the stoutest — Colts ranked 18^th in defense and the Saints finished 25^th. 

All the hype around the Super Bowl will be at a fever pitch once Carrie Underwood belts out the national anthem.  The pressure for some players can be suffocating.  But the key for both teams will be focusing on their precious opportunity to win a Super Bowl and forgetting everything else that has transpired in the past 20 weeks leading up to the big game.  As for on the field, don’t forget about our usual playoff tenants of Strong Quarterback Play (i.e. Taking Care of the Football), Good Attacking Defense, a Balanced Offensive Attack based first in the Run, Sound Special Teams Play, Limiting Penalties/Turnovers, and just plain “Want-to” all factorin in on who wins this Sunday.

Before we move-on to our preview, in a very odd side note, my crystal ball for the 2008 season said the Colts over the Saints in the Super Bowl.  Of course I am a year late and my picks for this year, the Steelers and NYGiants,  are nowhere to be found.  But no matter, who cares who predicted this match-up all the way back during training camp in July as Super Bowl XLIV should provide some fireworks.

To everyone, I want to wish you a  Happy Super Bowl Sunday !!!

Lloyd’s Leftovers for Super Bowl XLIV

Not much Trash Talking at this Super Bowl – With the mutual respect between the Colts and Saints there has not been the obligatory player trash talking. Remember in Super Bowl XL how then Seattle Seahawks tight end Jerramy Stevens made some comments about Steelers that got the dander up of then Steelers linebacker Joey Porter.  This time both teams were complimentary and guarded during media day interviews. 

NFL Television numbers support that the league is more popular than ever – Expect a huge contingent of NFL fans and fringe viewers to be watching  this Sunday. There is no doubt,  that the 2009 NFL season kept fans glued to their televisions.  Across America, fans  tuned into NFL games in the largest numbers in two decades.  According to Nielsen Media Research, the average 2009 regular-season game was watched by 16.6 million viewers – up 2 million viewers per game from last year and the NFL’s highest viewership average since 1990 (16.7 million).

Caldwell trying to make history – If Caldwell wins, he will become the 3^rd rookie head coach to lead his team to a Super Bowl win.  He also would become the third African American head coach to lead his team to victory in football’s biggest game – would join Tony Dungy (Super Bowl XLI) and Mike Tomlin (Super Bowl XLIII).

Watch for everyone’s favorite Super Bowl Ads – Every year one of the bigger events of the Super Bowl is watching the ads.  It was feared with the economy going south that not many companies would be buying time.  I heard CBS will be charging  $3 million or more for a 30-second commercial.

Game Notes and Prediction

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (15-3) at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (16-2) (Sunday February 7th, CBS, 6:25 PM ET)      

Broadcast Team: Jim Nance and Phil Simms

The AFC #1 seeded Indianapolis Colts and the NFC #1 seeded New Orleans Saints will square off in Super Bowl XLIV in South Florida.  The road for these two teams was similar (both started the regular season 13-0), but also different.  The Colts won the AFC Championship by dominating the scrappy New York Jets in a 30-17 win.  While the Saints won the NFC Championship in an overtime thriller 31-28 over the Minnesota Vikings when little known kicker Garrett Hartley connected on a 40-yard game-winning field goal. 

The AFC Champion Colts even though they have made it to their second Super Bowl in four years still have something to prove to themselves and their fanbase.  Don’t forget that the Colts still want to prove that they were right in “resting” key players down the stretch of the regular season in order to be prepared for the playoffs.  Colts President Jim Irsay said before resting players at the end of the regular season, “We’d love to get to 16-0. But the biggest focus is going to be on being prepared for that first playoff game.” The AFC’s No. 1 seed chose to not chase the perfect 1972 Dolphins (NFL’s only undefeated Super Bowl winner) in order to chase a Super Bowl victory.

If the Colts are to succeed and shutup their very disgruntled fan base, Manning (regular season stats: 393-571, 4500 yards – 2nd in NFL, 33 TDs (first in AFC), 16 INTs, and a 99.9 QB rating) will need to protect the football and make some plays down the field to his multitude of weapons including Pro Bowl WR Reggie Wayne, TE Dallas Clark, and emerging youngesters Pierre Garcon – the pride of Haiti had 11 catches for 151 yards and 1 TD  in the AFC Championship Game — and Austin Collie.  Even as good as Manning and his offensive passing weapons are, the Colts must find a running game with RB’s Joseph Addai and Donald Brown to keep the Saints from pinning their ears back on every play.  New Orleans will have their hands full as they will be missing pass rusher Charles Grant, who is on I/R, but expect veteran safety Darren Sharper (9 INTs) to spearhead New Orleans’ defensive effort.  

I am sure Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams’ will have something up his sleeve to rattle Manning (+ 11 in turnover ratio, placing them 3rd in the NFL) and the Colts high flying offense.  But they better be careful as the 4-time MVP is known to dissect a blitz-happy team, just ask the New York Jets (five different targets throughout the AFC Championship).

On defense, the Colts may have to rely on D-lineman Robert Mathis and Raheem Brock to apply pressure as Pro Bowl DE Dwight Freeney (13.5 sacks) is very iffy with a much-reported about ankle injury.  The Saints are very explosive and scored over 500 points this season (510), so they want to make the Colts’ defense chase them.  The Saints also ranked No. 1 in the NFL with an average of 403.8 yards per game.

Brees (17 of 31 for 197 yards and three TDs in NFC Championship Game win) will have many weapons at his disposal (WR Marques Colston, RB Mike Bell, TE Jeremy Shockey, and others), but you know Saints head coach Sean Payton wants the ball in jitterbug running back Reggie Bush’s hands.  The former Heisman winner has really picked it up this postseason and look for Colts playmaking linebacker Gary Bracket and safety Antoine Bethea (4 INTs in 2009) to keep an eye on him at all times.  Look for Payton to slowdown Mathis and Freeney by using his three-headed backfield monster of Bell, Bush, and Pierre Thomas.

LV’s Pick: Now that all of the hype and talk around Super Bowl XLIV is almost finished, our attentions can turn to Sun Life Stadium in South Florida.  The Colts have been installed as a 6-point favorite, but I truly believe that the youthful Saints will make this a game.  In this battle of marquee quarterbacks, I still believe that the team that runs the ball more effectively and causes turnovers will win.  The Saints have really picked it up since losing their last three games of the regular season, but they have also been a little sloppy.  Expect the veteran laden Colts to play smart and opportunistically, especially Manning.  The Colts win their second championship this decade and Manning will add to his already Hall of Fame resume — Colts 27, Saints 20 

 

Lloyd Vance is a Sr. NFL Writer for Taking It to the House and an award-winning member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA)

Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2010 announced

Legendary receiver Jerry Rice headlines the 7-member Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2010

Somehow I never totally get my predictions for the Hall of Fame voting right, but at least I got 4 out of the 7 inductees right.  It is hard to believe for the 3^rd year in a row receiver Cris Carter did not  get in and he was joined for the second year in a row by tight end Shannon Sharpe.

However the 44-member pro football writers panel did put together one pretty good class including first-ballot players Emmitt Smith and Jerry Rice plus the two Senior Committee candidates.  Anyway, when I return to Canton, Ohio this July there will be one great class waiting to be inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

The Pro Football Hall of Fame’s Class of 2010 is listed below:

OG Russ Grimm – Washington Redskins (1981-91)

LB/DE Rickey Jackson – New Orleans Saints (1981-93), San Francisco 49ers (1994-95)

CB Dick LeBeau* – Detroit Lions (1959-72)

RB Floyd Little* – Denver Broncos (1967-75)

DT John Randle – Minnesota Vikings (1990-2000), Seattle Seahawks (2001-03)

WR Jerry Rice – San Francisco 49ers (1985-2000), Oakland Raiders (2001-04),Seattle Seahawks (2004)

RB Emmitt Smith – Dallas Cowboys (1990-2002), Arizona Cardinals (2003-04)

 

 

Lloyd Vance is a Sr. NFL Writer for Taking It to the House and an award-winning member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA)

Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2010 Predictions

Taking It to the House’s Editor Lloyd Vance believes that Shannon Sharpe will be part of the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s Class of 2010.  The announcement will be made Saturday in South Florida.

Super Bowl XLIV is right around the corner as the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints are ready to do battle.  But one of the bigger events of Super Bowl week is almost upon us, as the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s Class of 2010 will be announced on Saturday, February 6th.  Being a historian of the game, I absolutely love the Pro Football Hall of Fame inductions each July, but each year when the classes are announced at the Super Bowl, the controversy soon follows.

No matter,  the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s fraternity will grow beyond its current 253 members as at least four and up to six worthy candidates will be selected to the PHOF from list of 17 finalists.

The 2010 Pro Football Hall of Fame 17 finalists (15 Modern-Era and two Senior Nominees*) with their positions, teams, and years include:           

• Tim Brown – Wide Receiver/Kick Returner – 1988-2003 Los Angeles/Oakland Raiders, 2004 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Cris Carter – Wide Receiver – 1987-89 Philadelphia Eagles, 1990-2001 Minnesota Vikings, 2002 Miami Dolphins
• Don Coryell – Coach – 1973-77 St. Louis Cardinals, 1978-1986 San Diego Chargers
• Roger Craig – Running Back – 1983-1990 San Francisco 49ers, 1991 Los Angeles Raiders, 1992-93 Minnesota Vikings
• Dermonti Dawson – Center – 1988-2000 Pittsburgh Steelers
• Richard Dent – Defensive End – 1983-1993, 1995 Chicago Bears, 1994 San Francisco 49ers, 1996 Indianapolis Colts, 1997 Philadelphia Eagles
• Russ Grimm – Guard – 1981-1991 Washington Redskins
• Charles Haley – Defensive End/Linebacker – 1986-1991, 1999 San Francisco 49ers, 1992-96 Dallas Cowboys
• Rickey Jackson – Linebacker – 1981-1993 New Orleans Saints, 1994-95 San Francisco 49ers
• Cortez Kennedy – Defensive Tackle – 1990-2000 Seattle Seahawks
• Dick LeBeau* – Cornerback – 1959-1972 Detroit Lions
• Floyd Little* – Running Back – 1967-1975 Denver Broncos
• John Randle – Defensive Tackle – 1990-2000 Minnesota Vikings, 2001-03 Seattle Seahawks
• Andre Reed – Wide Receiver – 1985-1999 Buffalo Bills, 2000 Washington Redskins
• Jerry Rice – Wide Receiver – 1985-2000 San Francisco 49ers, 2001-04 Oakland Raiders, 2004 Seattle Seahawks
• Shannon Sharpe – Tight End – 1990-99, 2002-03 Denver Broncos, 2000-01 Baltimore Ravens
• Emmitt Smith – Running Back – 1990-2002 Dallas Cowboys, 2003-04 Arizona Cardinals

Alright here is my best guess at predicting who will join the greatest sports fraternity of them all in my opinion.  To me all of the candidates are worthy and I also believe that there will definitely be several guys that won’t get the call on Saturday — checkout my Top 10 list of players deserving to be in the Hall of Fame for some other candidates that I felt should be in Canton. 

It will be interesting to see whom my fellow PFWA members vote-in when they get in the room.  I have been told by past voters, it can get very heated in the room as pro football writers from around the country usually are extremely passionate regarding players that they have covered.  To be elected by the 44-member Selection Committee, a finalist must receive a minimum positive vote of 80 percent.

1. Jerry Rice – In this year’s class, there are clearly two no-brainers.  I believe that Rice and Emmitt Smith will join the current group of 63 first- ballot Hall of Famers.  Probably the greatest receiver to ever play in the NFL and arguably the greatest football player of all-time.  Rice during his 20-year career set numerous records including most receiving yards (22895), most receptions (1549), and most receiving touchdowns (197).  The man they called “Gold Fingers” rose from tiny Mississippi Valley State University to being the most accomplished receiver in NFL history.  Rice may have not had blazing stopwatch speed, but he ran routes with precision and knew how to get separation when it mattered most.  Rice already helped to place his former Niners’ quarterbacks Joe Montana and Steve Young in the Hall of Fame and now it is his turn.  A two-time NFL offensive player of the year (1987 and 1993), Super Bowl MVP (1988), 13-time Pro Bowler and 10-time First-Team All-Pro.

2. Emmitt Smith – When Jerry Rice and Smith both left football after the 2004 season, everyone knew these two all-time NFL record holders would go into Canton together as first ballot guys.  Smith is the NFL’s all-time leading rusher (18,355 yards) and has scored the most rushing touchdowns (164) in league history.  Over a 15-year career, Smith was the engine that powered the Dallas Cowboys to three Super Bowl titles in the ‘90s.  Sure other running backs may have been bigger or had more speed or moves, but the former Florida All-American reached the mountain top of runners by “determination”.  Smith running beyond great O-linemen like Nate Newton, Mark Stepnoski, Eric Williams, and Ray Donaldson always was able to run to daylight and kept the chains moving until taking it to the house.  Played for the Cowboys over 13 decorated years before ending his career with the Arizona Cardinals.  There was only one season where Smith didn’t reach 930 rushing yards in a season during his career.  NFL Rookie of the Year (1990), NFL MVP (1993), Super Bowl MVP (1993), 8-time Pro Bowler and 4-time First-Team All-Pro.

3. Shannon Sharpe – I thought last year that this one was a no-brainer, but I think 2010 is the year Sharpe gets in.  This former lanky too slow receiver from Savannah State, who became one of the greatest tight ends ever, deserves to get into the Hall of Fame.  I know the loquacious Sharpe, who now works as a CBS analyst, can plead his own case for the Hall.  But his resume really speaks volumes with his 815 career receptions for 10,060 receiving yards and 62 touchdowns, which all were NFL career records for tight ends at the time of his retirement 6 years ago. The man, who once stood in older brother Sterling’s shadow, simply put was one of the greatest pass catching tight ends ever.  The former best field-stretching tight end of 90’s had a career that included 8 Pro Bowls, 3 Super Bowls rings (two Broncos and one with the Ravens) and 5 selections All-Pro.  Move over Mike Ditka and John Mackey as a new tight end joins your ranks.

4. Cris Carter – Are you kidding me from the last two years when the man that ran the prettiest routes and had the stickiest hands in the ’90s didn’t get into the Hall of Fame.  Well in 2010, the doors in Canton, Ohio will open for one of my favorite players from Buddy Ryan’s Eagles.  Carter left the game in 2002 with 1101 catches, 13899 yards, and 130 touchdowns in a career that spanned 16 years.  The now ESPN analyst is too humble to toot his own horn, but the man known for “just” catching touchdowns in Philly was an artist especially on third downs and in the red zone for the Eagles, Vikings, and Dolphins.  Carter was physical and could make any catch low or high for the many quarterbacks that he played with including Hall of Famer Warren Moon.  It seems about time that Canton opens its doors to this 8-time Pro Bowler and 2-time first-team All-Pro player.

5. John Randle – With so many slam dunk type candidates for the 2010 class, some may overlook a player like Randle.  But I believe this undersized defensive tackle and former undrafted free agent from Texas A&M – Kingsville deserves to join football’s most elite fraternity.  Randle along with former Vikings teammate Chris Doleman were the cornerstone of one of the NFL’s toughest pass rushing front fours in the 1990’s.  This former 7-time Pro Bowl player and 6-time All Pro was not the biggest defensive tackle at 6’1, 290 pounds but he had an innate ability to beat larger offensive linemen off the snap and get to the quarterback.  Randle finished with 137.5 sacks in 219 games played.    As a high-motor player, Randle was an intense competitor who was known to paint his face and bark at the opposition.  Also this former Vikings stalwart over 11 years was a very good run stopper.  Over an 11-year period from 1991 to 2001, Randle averaged double-digit sacks with a high of 15.5 to lead the NFL in 1997. 

6. Dick LeBeau – There is a saying in the media, “Don’t Mess with the Seniors’ Committee”.  So if any year deserves a sixth candidate to enter the Hall of Fame, then it is this year as two worthy men (LeBeau and Floyd Little) were sent forward for voting by the committee.  Many may know LeBeau as the Super Bowl winning defensive coordinator of the current Pittsburgh Steelers. But there was a time from 1959 to 1972 that he was one of the fiercest cornerbacks in the NFL for the Detroit Lions.  During his heyday in the 1960’s playing for some very good Lions teams, LeBeau was a tough tackler against the run and also provided very good coverage.  Finished with 62 career interceptions (currently ranked 8th All-time) with a high of 9 interceptions in 1970.  A three-time Pro Bowl player with 11 seasons of 4 interceptions or more.  Much like 2006 inductee John Madden, if LeBeau is inducted it would probably be considered a lifetime award since most voters cannot forget his great work over the years as an assistant coach too.  Remember 2009 HOF inductee Rod Woodson lobbying for his former coach during his speech.

Lloyd Vance is a Sr. NFL Writer for Taking It to the House and an award-winning member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA)

Signing Day 2010

February 3rd was Signing Day around college football as highly touted prospects like Paul Jones –signed with Penn State — decided on their football futures

The first week of February has recently become a sports phenomenon as thousands of high school football stars announce their college selections on “Signing Day” (Wednesday February 3rd).  As someone who considers himself Old-school and a historian of the game, ‘Signing Day’ is a bit premature and overblown for my taste.  I find it hard to believe the amount of coverage — the ESPN family of channels devoted several hours of coverage — that is given to former high school stars who have not even stepped foot onto a college football practice field. 

I even heard some college football analysts absurdly handing out future National Championships and Heisman’s based solely on Signing Day. Sure it is a great experience for players and their families to be featured on national television, but you have to wonder if all of the white-hot ‘Signing Day’ attention and expectations placed on these young men does more harm than good.  Immediately you know these young players are feeling the outside pressure from hanger-on types that are looking at them as their meal ticket and in terms of football, coaches and teammates may want immediate results from a player who may not be ready to deliver for three years.  For all of the hysteria surrounding Signing Day, my advice to everyone patting these young men on the back is to “Relax”. The college football world needs to remember that it is only one calendar day and immediately after the 2010 Super Class is announced, everyone will already be getting ready to anoint the 2011 group. 

Unfortunately college football history is filled with high school hotshots who couldn’t live-up to their immense Letter of Intent expectations.  Remember the road from Friday Night Lights high school Big Man to Saturday afternoon college football playmaker is quite trepidous with many potential pitfalls including grades, competition, injuries, girls, partying and any other obstacle that can quickly dim any high school All-American’s bright future. 

Another trend that I believe is signaling the too quick end of blue-chip player’s youth is that many Signing Day prospects are graduating high school early — foregoing the final semester of their senior year — to enroll in college in January to get a head start on their competition by playing in college Spring Ball. 

We will have to see in the next 2 to 3 years how the Signing Day Class of 2010 progresses, but I caution college football fans to give these young players time to mature.  Of course the usual bullies of the BCS landscape – Florida, USC, Texas, LSU, Alabama, and Oklahoma – were listed as the winners of Signing Day.

Do you remember the names Dan Alexander, Anthony Martinez, Ron Powlus, and James Banks…probably not.  But on their respective Signing Days, these former blue-chippers were all considered “Can’t Miss” prospects.

Some of the players that I will have my eye on that signed their Letters of Intent on February 3rd are. 

NAME                        HOMETOWN            COLLEGE
Tarean Austin           Hillsborough, FL        New Mexico

Robert Bolden          Orchard Lake, MI      Penn State

Terrance Broadway Baton Rouge, LA       Houston

Dominique Brown   Cincinnati, OH           Louisville

Tymeer   Brown        Mc Keesport, PA       UCONN

Devin Burns              Columbus, GA           Maryland

Sam Carter                Alief, TX                      TCU

Kain Colter                Englewood, CO         Northwestern

James Franklin         Lake Dallas, TX         Missouri

Devin Gardner          Inkster, MI                Michigan

Jeffrey Godfrey         Miami, FL                   Central Florida

Javia Hall                    Dallas, TX                      UTEP

Kofi Hughes              Indianapolis, IN           Indiana

Jeremy Johnson        Silsbee, TX                  West Virginia

Rudy Johnson           Owings Mills, MD        Buffalo

Paul Jones                 Mc Kees Rocks, PA      Penn State

Conelius Jones         Spartanburg, SC           Michigan

Munchie Legaux       New Orleans, LA        Colorado

Randall Mackey         Bastrop, LA                 Mississippi

Cameron Newton      Atlanta, GA                Auburn (JC Transfer)

Jesse Scroggins         Lakewood, CA            USC

Jameil Showers        Killeen, TX                    Texas A&M

Oscar Simms            Chesapeake, VA           Alabama

Marcus Smith           Columbus, GA              Louisville

Jacoby Walker         Houston, TX                  Arkansas

Ricardo Young         Washington DC           Virginia Tech

Lloyd Vance is a Sr. NFL Writer for Taking It to the House and an award-winning member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA)

The AFC wins the Pro Bowl 41-34 over the NFC, but Does Anyone Care

Not even a new venue and great performances from players like Cleveland Browns WR/KR Joshua Cribbs could make the 2010 Pro Bowl more noteworthy

Though it was a change in venue and playing date, the NFL’s annual Pro Bowl proved once again to being  just another ”blip” on most sports fans’ radars.  The AFC won 41-34 over the NFC in a game that featured defensive players basically taking the game off — the AFC totaled 517 yards and the NFC 470 with both teams throwing for more than 400 yards. 

Houston Texans QB Matt Schaub after throwing for 189 yards and two touchdowns was named the most valuable player of the 2010 Pro Bowl.  The game’s longest play was a 58-yard touchdown pass from Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (15-of-18, 197 yards, 2 TDs) to Philadelphia Eagles WR DeSean Jackson (2TDs in the game and showed his explosiveness) at the start of the 3rd quarter.

Some good news was that the stadium hosting the game was full for a change with a crowd of 70,697 showing up — the largest for a Pro Bowl since 1959 in Los Angeles.  But most emailers, texters, and callers that I talked to, had no intention of watching the game.  I think the new location (Miami, Florida) and play date (week before the Super Bowl) might have helped the in-stadium attendance, but overall it took away what little panache that the Pro Bowl possessed. 

At least when the game was in Honolulu, there was the built excuse that people after watching the Super Bowl forgot to tune into the NFL players’ annual vacation in paradise.  Now with the game being a “speed bump” before the Super Bowl, interest amongst the masses was lost even further by everyone getting ready for the week long media blitz before the Super Bowl. 

To make matters worse, players also seemed to be less interested in the honor of playing in the Pro Bowl by staying away in droves — nearly 40 percent of the players originally selected for the game didn’t play. Many of the players seemed to come up with more excuses than ever this year as they were not as thrilled for the game.  And who could blame them as most had already been to South Beach to party and a good majority were disappointed to not have the chance of going to paradise for the game/vacation. 

The “carrot” of playing in Hawaii – had hosted every Pro Bowl since 1980 — and getting away from everything after a long season always made players, league personnel, and coaches usually show-up for the game.  Did I also mention that the NFL in their infinite wisdom said that defenses could not blitz or run zones and offenses could not run the Wildcat formation – no wonder the Pro Bowl is the least anticipated game on the NFL calendar.

Unfortunately this year, the biggest buzz around the game was Minnesota Vikings offensive tackle Bryant McKinnie being sent home – already lived in Miami – for missing Pro Bowl practices — missed four of the NFC’s five practices — due to “Partying”, which he basically gloated about via his Twitter account.  McKinnie said he withdrew because of “injuries”.  But his early morning tweeting didn’t help his case.  “If U coming 2 (Mansion Miami nightclub) 2nite U better hurry! Getting packed!”.  

NFL spokesman Greg Aeillo has said the NFL is reviewing why Minnesota Vikings left tackle Bryant McKinnie failed to show up for multiple practices in advance of tonight’s Pro Bowl game, which prompted the league to remove him from the NFC roster.  It will be interesting to see if the Vikings pay McKinnie the $5 million dollars tied to incentives in his contract for making the Pro Bowl.

In the end, the AFC players won $45,000 dollars which will help for their room service and bar bills, while the NFC team got $22,500 compensation.  “It’s different. It was like 7 on 7,” Washington Redskins rookie Pro Bowl linebacker Brian Orakpo said. “Everybody came out here trying not to get hurt and give the fans a good show”. 

The AFC still leads the all-time series 21-19.  The game will return to Honolulu in 2011 and 2012, but the league hasn’t decided whether to hold those games before or after the Super Bowl. The Pro Bowl site for 2013 and beyond hasn’t been determined.

You have to feel bad for NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell as there really is no way to “spice-up” the Pro Bowl on the mainland or in Hawaii.  Because most players don’t want to get hurt and some quite frankly don’t care about the game, money or not.  Unfortunately football can never be played half-speed — especially defensively — and still be enjoyable to most astute fans.

 

Lloyd Vance is a Sr. NFL Writer for Taking It to the House and an award-winning member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA)

2010 Senior Bowl Review

Idaho OL Mike Iupati was one of many stars from Senior Bowl week.  You can read more about Iupati’s performance in Taking to the House’s 2010 Senior Bowl Review 

(Mobile, AL) — Every NFL GM, head coach, and their staffs were in Mobile, Alabama the week of January 25^h as the 2010 Senior Bowl took center stage on the NFL Calendar.  The first week of the two week lead-up to Super Bowl was supposed to be focused on South Florida as the NFL’s Pro Bowl was moved to the mainland.  But the real football action was in Mobile, Alabama for the 2010 Senior Bowl. 

NFL talent evaluators and media filled Ladd-Peebles Stadium for a week’s worth of looking at college senior prospects for the upcoming 2010 NFL Draft.  The teams had the right idea in going to Mobile, because the Senior Bowl is the top place to view players “in pads” before all of the t-shirt and shorts workouts start beginning with the NFL Combine (February 24-March 2).  Senior Bowl week is a special event unto itself as shown by the extensive amount of coverage on NFL Network, but this year’s event had even greater significance as the biggest player in college football, Tim Tebow, was in attendance.

Saturday’s game at Ladd-Peebles Stadium, with a 40,000 + seating capacity, was sold-out for weeks in advance and the week’s practices were very well attended, especially for the South team.  At practices, the stadium was abuzz at whatever Tebow decided to do whether it was consorting with the media, taking snaps under center, or just talking with his all-star teammates. 

Even though many of the top prospects in the 2010 NFL Draft were not in Mobile due to either being underclassmen (see Florida CB Joe Haden) or a top Senior deciding to wait until the NFL Combine (see Nebraska DT Ndamukong Suh).  The good news was that several top-level senior players (USC safety Taylor Mays, Idaho OG Mike Iupati, Michigan DE Brandon Graham, Alabama NT Terrence Cody and others) did choose to participate in the Senior Bowl’s week long activities.  Overall, several scouts that I talked to, that were in Mobile, indicated that this year’s senior group was less talented than the 2009 group.  So don’t expect to see this year’s group reach the heights of the 2006 Senior Bowl class that produced 14 first-round picks.

Hopefully the players were relaxed, because the Senior Bowl is a week-long blur of Weigh-in’s, NFL level practices, competitive “Live” one-on-one drills, interviews, and of course Saturday’s game under the supervision of two NFL staffs (North: Detroit Lions and South: Miami Dolphins).   You can have the lesser All-star games and the NFL Combine, because the Senior Bowl is the place where “football” players get to show off their skills in front of the entire NFL.  The scene is really incredible, because everyone understands that the Senior Bowl is almost like the NFL’s yearly open scouting clinic. 

Also several new and old head coaches use the Senior Bowl as an opportunity to interview potential coaches to fill their vacancies on their staffs before hunkering down for the draft.  Make no bones about it, everyone in Mobile was starting the long pre-draft scouting trek that will end at Radio City Music Hall, but I am sure some of the talent evaluators present were there to start their draft cajoling and smoke-screening too.  The crazy thing about the event is that every team for the most part is open to talking to other NFL staffs, you could even see division rivals sitting in the stands next to each other talking shop at morning and afternoon practices.

As for the game, Ladd-Peebles Stadium was sold-out by fans looking to see the nation’s best seniors battled it out in the 61st annual Senior Bowl.  The storyline going into the game may have been Tebow, but his South team never got on track against a very well prepared North Squad, especially on defense.  The Lions’ coaching staff, led by head coach Jim Schwartz, had their squad ready to play and it showed in a 31-13 victory. 

The star and MVP of the game was Michigan undersized defensive end Brandon Graham (6’1, 263), who produced 2 sacks, 1 forced fumble, five tackles with three of them for loss.  This smaller pass rusher, that some are comparing to Philadelphia Eagles DE Trent Cole, continuously was in the face of South quarterbacks Tebow, Zac Robinson and Jarrett Brown. “He’s a football player,” Schwartz said of Graham after the game. “You know, tweener, whatever — he’s a football player.”

Other players who played well in the game were Central Michigan QB Dan LeFevour (passing numbers: 5-of-10 for 97 yards and 1 TD); Oregon RB LeGarrette Blount (5 carries for 35 yards and 1 TD); Cincinnati WR Mardy Gilyard, (5 catches for a game-high 102 yards and 1 TD); Clemson speedy receiver Jacoby Ford (39-yard punt return); Georgia DT Geno Atkins and USC safety Taylor Mays (goal-line interception).  In addition to Graham winning the MVP, other Senior Bowl awards went to Gilyard (offensive player of the game), Mississippi State’s Jamar Chaney (defensive player of the game), Tulane’s Jeremy Williams (South MVP) and LeFevour (North MVP). 

As for Tebow, the player whom everyone came to see, he showed that he has much work to be done before the NFL Draft in April.  The former Heisman winner fumbled twice and threw several “safe” short passes (8-of-12 passes for 50 yards) with a couple being batted at the line of scrimmage.  The SEC’s all-time rushing touchdown leader and vaunted running quarterback also only carried the ball for 4 yards on four carries.

Now that the weighing, practicing, questioning, and playing is over for the 2010Senior Bowl, here are some observations, news, and notes from the event.

Event Risers – These were players that I believe increased their value in at the 2010 Senior Bowl.

Idaho OL Mike Iupati – Ironically after 60 Minutes had just profiled the “great” players from Samoa, another player from that region stepped up at the Senior Bowl.  The big (6’5, 325) All-American from Idaho was the most impressive lineman in Mobile by far all week. Iupati cemented his position as the top interior O-lineman in the 2010 Draft and he also showed some potential on the outside (35-inch arms). Displayed great footwork, balance and power in drills and in the game.  Though offensive guards are not typically first rounders, look for Iupati to have his name called early in April.

Ole Miss RB/WR/KR Dexter McCluster – A small player, who comes from the same mold as the Philadelphia Eagles Brian Westbrook.  McCluster will be able to help an NFL team in a variety of rolls including slot wide receiver, kick returner and in the Wildcat. The former Ole Miss running back is a true game-breaker, who looked to be one of the fastest players in practice while displaying agility in the open field.  Also is showed good hands catching the football and is not afraid to deliver a blow when running.

Florida State safety Myron Rolle – One of the best stories of Senior Bowl week got better by the day.  Rolle, who didn’t play football last year at FSU, came back from Oxford, England (Rhodes Scholar) and didn’t seem to miss a beat.  The aspiring doctor looked in great shape (6’2, 215) and showed little rust. Rolle was a lot smoother than people expected in drills including showing a good backpedal and an ability to close.  Rolle looked more polished player than his former FSU teammate Patrick Robinson, even after taking off one year from football. Looks to be a great leader in the mold of former Eagles safety Brian Dawkins.

Boise State CB Kyle Wilson – Once again a member of the Boise State football team was able to hang with the big boys when given an opportunity.  Wilson showed that he has shutdown corner skills and was excellent at mirroring receivers. The former Boise State star looked to be the most comfortable in press coverage and Wilson also shined in zone coverage in practice. Established himself as the top senior cornerback in this year’s draft and has a chance to go after Florida’s Joe Haden.

Oregon RB LeGarrette Blount – I know it will be hard for many to forget that Blount was suspended for the majority of the regular season after punching a player in Oregon’s opener.  But the stocky running back came to Mobile to work and it showed.  After a solid week of practice, Blount now projects to be a solid mid-round pick. The former Oregon starter ran well ball between the tackles and showed that he was a solid blocker.

Wayne State RB Joique Bell – When you come from a smaller school, you need to make a good impression in All Star games.  Bell made the most of his opportunity and showed that he belonged with some of his more ballyhooed teammates.  He caught the ball out of the backfield well and had good balance when running the ball.  Bell may not be the quickest guy on the field, but he has a chance of being a 3^rd down back in the NFL due to “Want To”.

UAB multi-purpose threat Joe Webb – Originally  a quarterback for most of his career at UAB, Webb made the transition back to the receiver position at the Senior Bowl.  The former two-time 2,000 yard passer and 1,000 yard rusher in the same season has very good size (6’4, 210) and showed a good attitude to go along with some good hands.  Webb looks like this year’s “Slash” and I could see a team drafting him to play multiple roles like Cleveland Browns Pro Bowl player Joshua Cribbs.  Worked hard in practices and on game day with a lot of scouts comparing him to NY Jets’ Wildcat. Brad Smith.

Miami (FL) TE Jimmy Graham – Came to Mobile as an unknown, but after a very good week this former basketball player made his mark on the gridiron.  Graham clearly out-played USC’s Anthony McCoy while looking comfortable catching the ball and blocking.  The former Hurricane has the frame (6’6, 260) and agility to be considered a top field-stretching prospect at the next level.  We will see if he can follow in the footsteps of Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez going from the hardwood to the NFL, Graham had a very good week.

West Virginia QB Jarrett Brown – At the South team’s practices, everyone was supposed to be watching Tim Tebow.  It was no contest as Brown showed more passing skills and athleticism than Tebow.  Reminds me of Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb in that he throws with great velocity and is a dual-threat.  Showed good footwork and arm strength in drills and many thought he as the best quarterback prospect in Mobile.  Right now, Brown is a better pocket passer than his former WVU teammate Pat White, who was a second round pick by the Dolphins in 2009.  Brown will need time to learn NFL defenses, but he has a good chance of being a 2nd or 3rd round developmental pick.

South Florida George Selvie – After a disappointing senior year, where many questioned why he didn’t declare after an impressive junior campaign.  Selvie came to Mobile looking to gain back some of the ground he lost during the 2009 season.  The former South Florida sacker showed an explosive first step and better strength than expected (able to bullrush on bigger O-lineman).   Also tried some linebacking drills, but clearly there is work to be done.  However to me, Selvie is what he is and that is an undersized (6’4, 244) pass rusher.   We will see if he can follow in the footsteps of 2009 NFL sack leader Elvis Dumervil.

Event Maintainers – These were players that I believe were solid and did not hurt their value at the 2009 Senior Bowl. 

Alabama DL Terrence Cody – I know he weighed in at 370 pounds and several media outlets sent his weigh-in picture out as a joke.  But “Mount” Cody is, what he is and that is a two-gap run-stuffing nose tackle.  You can ask any NFL evaluator that is running a 3-4 defense about how hard it is finding a dominant nose tackle.  Cody looked like the next Ted Washington or Casey Hampton as displayed good quickness and strength in blocking drills.  Expect the former Alabama All-American to slim down by his Pro Day and he should be a first round pick.

Penn State DT Jared Odrick – This high-motor versatile defensive lineman had a very good week as he was relentless and fluid in drills.  Odrick looks like a good fit as an under tackle in a 4-3 or a 3-4 end.  Spent many practices camped out in the North’s offensive backfield.  A rangy 300-pounder, Oldrick had a quick first step and had some good moves fending off blockers.  Unfortunately we never got to see Oldrick go one-on-one with Iupati in practices.

Oklahoma State CB Perrish Cox – Showed that he will be one of the top corners in the upcoming draft.  Cox was versatile in the coverage while showing speed and smooth hips. Broke well on the ball and should make an immediate impact in the NFL in nickel and dime coverages.

USC safety Taylor Mays – One of the bigger names coming into this week, Mays showed that he deserved a lot of attention.  Though some are trying to project him as a future weakside linebacker, the former USC hitter showed better than expected coverage skills in defensive back drills.  Looks like a good candidate to play strong safety in the NFL where his bulk will allow him to come-up and make plays in the box.

Florida WR Riley Cooper – Tim Tebow’s former go-to guy at Florida looked like he is ready to make the transition into the slot.  Cooper ran crisp routes and showed very good hands while not shying away from contact.  Looks to be like he could be the next Austin Collie, but we will have to wait and see.

Central Michigan QB Dan LeFevour – After a very productive college career, this small school passer still had something to prove in Mobile.  LeFevour, who did show average arm strength, had good anticipation and was able to move around the pocket in drills.  Looks to be a solid back-up type in the NFL and should have his head in the playbook right away.

LSU OL Ciron Black – Showed versatility by playing both the offensive tackle and guard positions in practice.  Had a good knee bend and didn’t get too high in blocking drills.  Looks to be a mid-round pick in the upcoming NFL draft, but should be a solid pro prospect at offensive guard.

Event Crashers - These were players that I believe hurt their value at the Senior Bowl and will need to make up ground at their Pro Days and the Combine to get back up in the mix by the NFL Draft.

Florida QB Tim Tebow – I know that he could have stayed home and lived off his lengthy resume.  But intangibles are now everything in the evaluation of a potential NFL quarterback.  Tebow is a great leader, however right now the Senior Bowl showed that his is behind Cincinnati’s Tony Pike and others.  The former Heisman winner had difficulty in practices taking snaps from under center and continued to throw with a painfully slow elongated delivery.  Maybe working with former NFL coach Zeke Bratkowski will help him with his footwork and other requisite quarterback skills, but currently Super Timmy looks like a situational quarterback (3^rd round pick).  One NFL personnel evaluator who was in Mobile said to me after watching Tebow practice, “He looks more like a fullback with each throw”. 

West Virginia OL Selvish Capers – One scout that I talked to, plainly said about Caper, “He was awful”.  The former WVU O-lineman had a bad weigh-in and his practice habits didn’t help him either.  Has great size (6’5, 304) and athleticism, but much like the majority of collegiate career, Capers hasn’t fully put it all together.  I am not sure he can be a legitimate franchise left tackle as he reached too often and was beaten to the inside too.

Oregon State QB Sean Canfield – A left-hander who displayed a weak arm in drills.  Looked like an undrafted free agent West Coast offense type as he was unable to consistently throw outside the hashes. The first team All-PAC 10 pick better work to improve his weak arm.

Ohio State DB Kurt Coleman – Clearly had problems in coverage and looked stiff in drills. Clearly looks like his best chance to make the NFL is as a backup strong safety and special teams player.

UMass OL Vladimir Ducasse – Looks the part of a type flight O-lineman (6’4 ½, 326) but something is missing.  Had problems in practice with lineman from bigger schools beating him off the snap.  Will need to work on his footwork and not reaching.

That’s a wrap for the 2010 Senior Bowl and now the NFL’s attention will shift to Super Bowl XLIV in South Florida between the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints. 

Lloyd Vance is a Sr. NFL Writer for Taking It to the House and an award-winning member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA)

Why all the fuss over Tebow at the Senior Bowl

After a below average week at the Senior Bowl, a lot of NFL evaluators are wondering what’s all the fuss over Florida QB Tim Tebow

This week in Mobile, Alabama region, a phenomenon like none other took over the city on the Gulf.  No it was not President Barack Obama visiting, but to some it was something much bigger as former Florida quarterback and College Football legend Tim Tebow arrived to practice and play in the 2010 Senior Bowl.  The annual convention of NFL scouts, front office types, and the media that each year makes Mobile the hotbed of the football universe for one week, had never seen nothing like college football’s loveable folk hero.

Even though the Senior Bowl has been around for over 50 years, nothing could have prepared the All Star Game for Tebow.  Saturday’s game at Ladd-Peebles Stadium, with a 40,000 + seating capacity, has already been sold-out for weeks in advance and the week’s practices were very well attended, especially for the South team – coached by the Miami Dolphins staff.  At practices, the stadium was abuzz at whatever Tebow decided to do whether it was consorting with the media, taking snaps under center, or just talking with his all-star teammates.

However I hate to rain down on Tim-polooza, but enough already with Timmy Terrific as the number one story at the Senior Bowl.  By all indications this week’s events at the nation’s foremost college all-star game confirmed what I have thought all along about him.  Much like former Gators’ standout quarterback Danny Wuerffel, Super Tim is a dream player off the field, a National Championship quarterback, a former Heisman Trophy winner, a college football “winner”, and an all-round great guy.  But the one thing that this week in Mobile confirmed is that Tebow is a second tier pro quarterback prospect at best. 

Tebow – described as the greatest college player ever by some — had difficulty in Senior Bowl practices taking snaps from under center, continued to throw with a painfully slow elongated delivery, and showed poor footwork.  One NFL personnel evaluator who was in Mobile said to me after watching Tebow practice, “He looks more like a fullback with each throw”.  To make matters worse for Tebow, not by his own doing, he stole all the attention from guys who really helped themselves in practices like Idaho OL Mike Iupati, Penn State DL Jared Odrick, Boise State CB Kyle Wilson, West Virginia QB Jarrett Brown, UAB receiver Joe Webb, and others.

Speaking of Webb, it was interesting to see that the former two-time over 2,000-yard passer and 1,000 rusher in the same season was “asked” to play receiver in this year’s game.  I wonder why a certain college superstar, who ESPN draft guru Mel Kiper Jr believes has a chance at playing H-back in the NFL, wasn’t asked to practice at another position. 

To put it succinctly, this week confirmed what I thought of Tim Tebow’s potential as a pro quarterback going back to before the college football season.  As a prospect he is clearly behind Colt McCoy, Sam Bradford, Jimmy Clausen, Jarrett Brown, Dan Lefebvre, Tony Pike and many other quarterbacks in this year’s class.  Heck…give me Southern University passer Bryant Lee, who was a finalist for the Walter Payton Award in FCS over Tebow as a quarterback.

I am not alone in my current assessment of Tebow as ESPN’s Todd McShay also was not impressed by the former Florida Super Man this week.  “I thought coming in that maybe all the intangibles and all the little things he did, showing signs of improvement could help his stock,” McShay said. “But I would say, unfortunately, that (coming to the Senior Bowl) hurt his stock.”

It will be real interesting to see if Tebow can thrill the Senior Bowl’s sellout crowd on Saturday afternoon – already has put out the Favre-ian excuse that he has been suffering from strep throat all week.  But to me and others he has a lot of work to do from now until the NFL Draft in April.  I am not even sure if performing well at the NFL Combine next month or a good Pro Day workout will move Tebow up from his expected mid-level draft grade.  Right now it would seem ludicrous for any NFL team including the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are rumored to like Tebow as a ticket seller, to put the future of their franchise on the line by making him a first or second round pick.

For those that don’t believe what we have seen during Tebow’s all-star week performance just put in the tape of his game this year against Tennessee with former coordinator Monte Kiffin running the defense.  In the 23-13 win by Florida, the former NFL superbowl-winning defensive coordinator’s unit confused Tebow as he threw for only numbers of 14-19 for 115 yards, 0 TDs, and 1 INT with a longest completion of only 18 yards. 

Maybe Tebow will prove all of his naysayers, including yours truly wrong, but right now his road to transferring his flashbulb worthy college stardom to Sunday’s game is a long ways off.

By way, Wuerffel “the winner” was a surprise 4^th round pick by the New Orleans Saints in the 1997 NFL Draft and unfortunately he was quickly out the league within 5 years as his college mastery never translated to pro football. 

 

 

Lloyd Vance is a Sr. NFL Writer for Taking It to the House and an award-winning member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA)

2009 NFL Championship Round Review

Saints quarterback Drew Brees and the “Who Dat” Nation were all smiles as New Orleans made their first Super Bowl by beating the Vikings in OT.  The upstart Saints will play the Indianapolis Colts in Super Bowl XLIV

We now know that the 90th NFL Season will culminate at Super Bowl XLIV in South Florida with the Indianapolis Colts (16-2) against the New Orleans Saints (15-3).  Both teams, who seemed to be on a collision course earlier this season, showed their mettle by turning back extraordinary efforts by the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings to earn their respective tickets to the NFL’s biggest stage. 

For a long time this year’s Super Bowl match-up seemed predestined as both of these teams remained undefeated teams through 14 weeks – first time two 13-0 teams in NFL history –  and an 18-0 undefeated showdown seemed very possible.  Of course any talk of the “Perfection” Bowl ended with the Saints losing to the Cowboys in Week 15 and the Colts choosing to “rest” their players in a Week 16 loss to the NY Jets. 

Though the match-up will be sans the undefeated part, many people’s intrigue around the Colts-Saints big game should be increased as two of the NFL’s top quarterbacks will be taking center stage.  This season, Colts quarterback Peyton Manning became the NFL’s only 4-time MVP while Saints quarterback Drew Brees threw more regular season touchdowns (34) than anyone else in the league.  Offensive fireworks are sure to fly in Super Bowl XLIV as both teams can put up points while their defenses are not known to be the stoutest — Colts ranked 18^th in defense and the Saints finished 25^th. 

Before we move onto the inordinate amount of hype that is sure to follow in the 2-week build up to the Super Bowl, let’s review the two Championship Games from this past Sunday that has brought us the NFL’s first No. 1 Seed battle since 1993 (Buffalo vs. Dallas in Super Bowl XXVIII). In a very odd side note, my crystal ball for the 2008 season said the Colts over the Saints in the Super Bowl.  Of course I am a year late and my picks for this year, the Steelers and NYGiants,  are nowhere to be found.

2009 AFC Championship Game Review

In the end, surefire Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning and rookie head coach Jim Caldwell held the Lamar Hunt trophy, signifying the AFC Championship, aloft  after a dominating 30-17 win over the scrappy New York Jets.  After enduring much talk during the week of their inability to out-tough the physical New York Jets, the Colts showed their gumption by scoring 24 unanswered points after trailing by a deficit of 17-6 late in the 2^nd quarter.

This time around Manning and the Colts’ regulars played the entire game and there was no “rest” until the job was complete.  The Colts showed the heart of a champion as they had to endure the brash young New York Jets, who turned their swagger into some early points. 

The Jets continually throughout the 2009 regular season got early leads on teams and then allowed their vaunted defense to close the door.  But this time was different as Manning and the rest of his mates knew a 60-minute effort would be needed to make their 2^nd Super Bowl in the last four years possible.

“We talked about being patient against these guys,” Manning said. “We knew it would be a four-quarter game.”  The road warrior Jets answered early Colts’ field goals by putting up two quick touchdowns and definitely seemed to be following in the footsteps of the old J-E-T-S of Joe Namath who beat the Colts in Super Bowl III. 

Rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez, the fourth rookie quarterback to lead his team to the conference title game, brought Jets’ nation to their feet with an 80-yard touchdown pass to  Braylon Edwards giving New York a 7-3 lead.

Then Jets Wildcat QB/receiver Brad Smith, a former dual threat passer at Missouri, connected with receiver Jerricho Cotchery for a 45-yard pass to the Colts 12.   Just three plays later, Sanchez hit TE Dustin Keller with a 9-yard touchdown pass to give the Jets a 14-6 lead and cause many Colts fans to recall playoff disappoints of the past.  The doom and gloom only got worse for Indy when running back Joseph Addai’s fumble set up Jay Feely’s 48-yard field goal to make the score 17-6 with halftime looming.

Alright queue the NFL Films music…Knowing that going into halftime down to the Jets, who sported the NFL’s No. 1 ranked defense coming into the game, was recipe for defeat, the Colts offense answered the bell.  Manning led the Colts on an 80-yard scoring drive in only four plays.  The 4-time MVP found one his new favorite young targets, rookie Austin Collie, three straight times with the drive culminating with a 16-yard touchdown pass to the former BYU player with little over a minute left in the first half.  By leading the Colts to a more manageable 17-13 deficit, Manning and Caldwell (fifth rookie coach to reach the Super Bowl) grabbed back the momentum for the second half. 

After stopping the Jets to start the second half, Manning and Colts took the lead for good when the veteran quarterback hit the Player of the Game, receiver Pierre Garcon (11 catches for 151 yards and 1 TD), in the end zone to make the score 20-17 with 8:03 left in the third quarter.  The Colts never looked back and there were a variety of players that made their Super Bowl trip a reality.  Manning finished with unbelievable numbers of 26/39, 377 YDS, and 3 TDs while becoming first player to pass for three touchdowns against the Jets this season.  The veteran quarterback made the Jets pay for their blitz-happy ways as he moved the ball around to five different targets throughout the game. 

The Colts had to find other options than No. 1 receiver Reggie Wayne and they did.  With the Jets focusing their entire scheme on getting pressure on Manning and having Pro Bowl sticky corner Darrelle Revis shadow Wayne. Manning’s other targets Garcon, Collie, and TE Dallas picked up the slack with each catching a touchdown pass in the win. Collie and Garcon, both had career highs in yardage, combined for 18 receptions for 274 yards and two touchdowns while repeatedly coming up with big receptions in the clutch.  With the Colts’ O-line keeping the Jets at bay, Manning — first player in league history with seven 300-yard postseason games — got the ball out his hands quickly and dropped passes into “shoeboxes” despite tight coverage in the win.  Caldwell said of his on the field leader, “Peyton had just an outstanding game. He’s one of those guys that can adjust to different situations. … A real champion.”

Credit for the win must also be given to the Colts often maligned defense, who shutout the Jets in the second half.   The Colts knew shutting down the Jets’ vaunted rushing attack was key and they did.  After averaging 170 rushing yards in their first two playoff games, the Jets’ top-ranked ground game was held to just 86 yards on 29 attempts – knocked rookie runner Shonn Greene out of the game with a rib injury.  And allowed the Colts to win the time of possession battle 31:25 to 28:35.  To his credit Sanchez (17 of 30 for 257 yards with two TDs and 4^th quarter interception) did play some good football and produced some plays, but the Colts veterans on defense played with pride and forced one turnover.

The Colts are now headed back to the Super Bowl for the second time in four years and their fourth time in franchise history. To make things even more magical, the Colts will be playing at the same venue where they won Super Bowl XLI to close out the 2006 season.  Manning will also be facing the team he grew-up rooting for, the New Orleans Saints, who won 31-28 in overtime against the Minnesota Vikings in NFC Championship.  Peyton’s father, Archie Manning, who played many years for New Orleans said of the upcoming Super Bowl match-up, “I’m pulling for the Colts 100 percent, it’s not even close”

“We’ve been here before, we had seven comeback wins this year. I think the guys were a little rattled at first, I think we took their best shot, but we came back,” linebacker Gary Brackett said. “I think we did a great job of being the hunters and imposing our will today.”  The Colts their resiliency after the win, but they need to remember that is still one more game to go.  I know their fans will remind them as they will accept nothing less than a Super Bowl title to put “Rest-Gate” truly to rest.

2009 NFC Championship Game Review

Some will call this overtime thriller, where little known kicker Garrett Hartley connected on a 40-yard game-winning field goal to send the New Orleans Saints to their first  Super Bowl, an Instant Classic.  But I am not so sure as the Saints’ hard fought 31-28 overtime win over the Minnesota Vikings was thrilling  however it was very sloppy too. 

The great ending overshadowed a tough game that featured 9 fumbles (4 lost) and 2 interceptions between both teams including five turnovers by the Vikings.  Of course the “prettiness” of the win didn’t matter to the Saint’s faithful who packed the Superdome – franchise’s largest of 71,276 – then afterwards flooded Bourbon Street for a celebration that New Orleans had not seen in years. 

The biggest play of the game of course was Minnesota Vikings quarterback Brett Favre’s risky cross-field pass that was intercepted by Saints DB Tracy Porter near the end of the regulation (19 seconds left in the game). The Saints defense had harassed and battered Favre the whole game and the aging quarterback wanted to make a play so bad that he made a huge mistake that setup overtime.   ”I’ve felt better,” said Favre after the game. “It was a physical game. A lot of hits. You win that and you sure feel a lot better.”  Favre’s final pass as a member of the Packers, Jets and Vikings are all interceptions.  I wonder when old No. 4 is going to start his retire/unretire talk this offseason.

The seesaw game also showed the good and bad of Vikings RB Adrian Peterson, who ran “violently” for 122 yards and three touchdowns, but also lost two fumbles.  Overall, the Vikings piled up 475 yards and 28 points but were undone by five turnovers and penalties.  Conversely, Saints quarterback Drew Brees (17 of 31 for 197 yards and three TDs) was cool and calm in the pocket as he led one of the NFL’s most downtrodden franchises to their first Super Bowl.   Brees showed the savvy and leadership that caused New Orleans to embrace him before the 2006 season.

In overtime, New Orleans won the coin toss and Brees quickly guided the Saints to the Minnesota 22 mixing both the pass and run.  Before Hartley’s field goal, the biggest play of the drive was RB Pierre Thomas converting a fourth-and-1 with a goal-line type leap.  After Hartley’s game-winner, the Superdome that once serve as a refuge for many after Hurricane Katrina was now alive as the “Who Dat” Nation” celebrated their unlikely hero.  New Orleans is the first team in NFL history to reach the Super Bowl after entering the playoffs with a losing streak of three or more games. The Saints’ record at home improved to 14-4 since 2008, including the playoffs.

Now former paper bag-wearing Saints fans could finally put their No. 1 fingers in the air as they had made it to the NFL’s ultimate game.  “It’s a moment I’ve been waiting for a long time and obviously we’re not done yet,” said Brees.  The Saints (15-3) will meet Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts (16-2) in the Super Bowl in two weeks in South Florida.

 The Super Bowl match-up will be a highly anticipated offensive match-up, but Brees and the upstart Saints will have to finish the job against the veteran-laden Colts.  Immediately following Sunday’s game, Indianapolis was installed as 4-point favorites and already the line is moving higher.

Lloyd’s Leftovers

• With the NFC Championship Game ending in overtime on the Saints’ first drive after winning the coin toss of the extra session, there is sure to be much discussion around the league of giving both teams a chance to score in overtime.  However recent history has shown that no one around the league is really “crying” over the current rules other than some fans and media.  Back at the 2009 NFL League Meetings, the Competition Committee listened to the evils of sudden death overtime and they decided to not vote on any proposals to change the existing overtime rules. Despite the fact that back when the discussion occurred after the 2008 season that 63 percent of overtime games were won by the coin toss winning team.  Most players that I have talked to, do not mind the current overtime format and want to fight it out in sudden death – just have your defense stop the other team.  And I must admit that I am also in agreement with the Competition Committee.

 

 

Lloyd Vance is a Sr. NFL Writer for Taking It to the House and an award-winning member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA)

2009 NFL Playoffs – NFC Championship Game

Quarterback Drew Brees leads the home team Saints against the Vikings in the NFC Chammpionship Game

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (13-4) at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (14-3) (Sunday, FOX, 6:40 PM ET) 

Broadcast Team: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Chris Myers and Pam Oliver (Field Reporter)

This features two of the NFL’s best passers, Saints QB Drew Brees and Vikings QB Brett Favre squaring off in a highly anticipated offensive pinball type game.  This meeting marks the 5th time in NFL history top-2 scoring teams in NFL meet in Conference Championship Game.  Minnesota since signing veteran Brett Favre before the season has pointed to playoffs for the future Hall of Famer to make a difference and against the Dallas Cowboys last week, he paid dividends by producing a 34-3 dominating win.

Though the quarterbacks are the marquee players, I believe the team that can run the ball more effectively and gets the most defensive pressure is going to win this game.  The Vikings are more than just Favre (363-531, 4202 yards, 33 TDs – 2nd in the NFL, 7 INTs, and a rating of 107.2 – second in the NFL) as the 40-year old passer has many offensive weapons at his disposal including Rookie of the Year explosive receiver Percy Harvin, Pro Bowl receiver Sidney Rice, Bernard Berrian, and TE Visante Schiancoe. But don’t forget the key part of the Vikings offense is their formerly ground-churning running attack led by Pro Bowl RB Adrian Peterson – hasn’t been over 100 yards rushing in 8 games — and a huge offensive line built around Pro Bowl guard Steve Hutchinson. 

The main key for me will be the Saints (+ 11 in turnover ratio, placing them 3^rd in the NFL) ability to rattle Favre as the veteran will make mistakes when he is harassed – threw over 20 INTs last year for the NY Jets.  New Orleans will have their hands full as they will be missing pass rusher Charles Grant, who is on I/R, but expect veteran safety and former Packers Favre teammate Darren Sharper (9 INTs) to spearhead New Orleans’ defensive effort.   Gregg Williams’ Saints defense will also have the 70,000 plus Super Dome noisy crowd behind them to rattle Favre and the Vikings high flying offense. “There’s no fan base that deserves a championship more than New Orleans and the ‘Who Dat’ nation,” said Brees.  “Just the bond that we have with them is special.  They give us strength.  They give us motivation.  We want to do it for them.”

On offense the Saints, ranked No. 1 in the NFL with an average of 403.8 yards per game, need to find their explosiveness that allowed them to score over 500 points this season (510).  Though the Saints struggled down the stretch (lost last 3 regular season games), Brees and rest of the team proved last week against the Cowboys (dominated in a 45-14 win) that these are the new-look Saints in the postseason – now have an all-time 3-6 postseason record. The Super Dome will be rocking as it should be a Mardis Gras type atmosphere for the home team Saints and their raucous fans. 

The Saints offense has many weapons (WR Marques Colston, RB Mike Bell, TE Jeremy Shockey, and others), but last week they re-discovered explosive jitterbug running back Reggie Bush.  The former Heisman winner got the home crowd on their feet as he produced 217 total yards and became just the second player in NFL postseason history to score a touchdown on a rush and punt return in the same game.  “He’s a guy who can change the game,” said Saints head coach Sean Payton.  Surely the Vikings’ veteran defense led by Pro Bowl corner Antoine Winfield and All-World pass rusher Jared Allen (14.5 sacks to lead the NFC) will look to rattle Brees before he can get the ball to his speedy receivers (Colston, Bush, Robert Meachem and others).  And Saints head coach Sean Payton will probably look to help Brees by using their three-headed backfield monster of Bell, Bush, and Pierre Thomas against the Vikings D-line led by the Williams Wall (DT’s Pat and Kevin Williams). 

These two teams are meeting in the postseason for the 3^rd time with the Vikings currently holding a 2-0 advantage.  In the overall regular season series, the Vikings lead that too by a count of 18-7.

LV’s Pick:  This is a tough game, because both teams have a ton of weapons offensively.  But the two “X” factors of running the football and getting to the quarterback will be prevalent.  I still believe the Vikings’ defense, led by Allen, can get to Brees as the Saints O-line has been a little leaky since losing LT Jamal Brown.  Expect a motivated Peterson to show-up and for Favre to be relaxed in his 5^th NFC Championship Game (current record of 2-2).  The Saints home crowd should make it tough on the Vikings, but I believe Minnesota is more ready to go to the Super Bowl –Vikings 31, Saints 27

Lloyd Vance is a Sr. NFL Writer for Taking It to the House and an award-winning member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA)

2009 NFL Playoffs – AFC Championship Game Preview

Multipurpose threat Brad Smith leads the J-E-T-S against the Colts in the AFC Championship Game

 

NEW YORK JETS (11-7) at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (15-2) (Sunday, CBS, 3:00 PM ET)      

Broadcast Team: Jim Nance and Phil Simms

The pressure will be on the Colts to prove that they can win after “resting” key players down the stretch of the regular season in order to be prepared for the games that count. Colts President Jim Irsay said before resting players at the end of the regular season, “We’d love to get to 16-0. But the biggest focus is going to be on being prepared for that first playoff game.” This game is a direct rematch from Week 15 of the regular season, which many are calling “Rest-Gate”, right down to the venue.  Unfortunately for angry Colts fans, let’s go back to what happened back then.  The Indianapolis Colts, who were 14-0 and had already wrapped up the AFC’s No. 1 seed, came into the game riding a 23-game winning streak with a chance to match the perfect 1972 Dolphins (NFL’s only undefeated Super Bowl winner) and 2007 New England Patriots (16-0 regular season).  But unfortunately we all know that they  lost for the first time to the New York Jets by a score of 29-15.  The game was a  “C’MON MAN” moment for the Colts’ fan base.

The “real” Colts, namely quarterback Peyton Manning, left the crucial game in the 3rd quarter.  Holding true to their organizational philosophy, the Colts’ first teamers  after staking their second stringers to a 15-10 lead, took a seat on the bench — 5:36 left in the third quarter.  Subsequently the Jets outscored Indy  the rest of the way, putting up 19 unanswered points.  Of course Jets’ fans will not say it was a G-I-V-E-U-P, but who are they fooling.  Colts’ backup quarterback Curtis Painter was awful, to say the least, as he produced putrid numbers of 4/11 passing for 44 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception in an effort that made most Colts fans long for former quarterback Jack Trudeau.  The former Purdue signal caller’s biggest play of the game, a fumble recovery for a touchdown by the Jets, came immediately after Colts’ fans realized Manning was done for the game and serenaded the young quarterback with boos.  Painter was hit by NY Jets linebacker Calvin Pace and lost the ball, with Marques Douglas recovering and scoring.   It was all downhill after Painter’s gaffe as the Jets added a  2-point conversion making the score 18-15 and New York never relinquished the lead.

After the game, Manning as he always does, said all of the right things.  The 4-time NFL MVP said, “Until any player in here is the head coach, you follow orders and you follow them with all of your heart. That’s what we’ve done as players. We follow order”.   But the loss robbed the 2009 Colts (Manning, Freeney, Wayne, Brackett, and others) of walking in destiny with the 1972 Dolphins (Cszonka, Griese, Warfield, Scott, and others).   The Colts may not have thought “resting” players was not a “give up”, but to their fans, it was.   “I don’t blame them a bit, man,” Colts’ center Jeff Saturday said after the loss. “I probably would have booed, too. I don’t blame them. They pay to come see us win games, and we didn’t get it done.”  The Colts’ management is hoping a trip to the Super Bowl will sooth their fans and Sunday’s game definitely is huge to say the least. 

The NY Jets are a tough physical team that loves to run the football with emerging rookie running back Shonn Greene (has posted back-to-back 100-yard games in the playoffs) and veteran Thomas Jones (over 1200 yards in the regular season).  Plus Gang Green also features an attacking defense led by shutdown corner Darrelle Revis.  If the Colts are to succeed and shut-up their very disgruntled fan base, QB Peyton Manning (regular season stats: 393-571, 4500 yards – 2nd in NFL, 33 TDs (first in AFC), 16 INTs, and a 99.9 QB rating) will need to protect the football and make some plays down the field to his multitude of weapons including Pro Bowl WR Reggie Wayne, TE Dallas Clark, and emerging youngsters Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie. 

Even as good as Manning and his offensive passing weapons are, the Colts must find a running game to keep the Jets from pinning their ears back on every play –  led the NFL this season allowing 14.8 points per game.  “That’s the best defense I’ve played all year.  Against the run and against the pass, they’re really prepared”, said Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson after his team’s loss to the Jets last week.  Running backs Joseph Addai (219 rushes for 828 yards, 3.8 ypc, and 10 TDs) and Donald Brown will need to find a way to move the chains against the Jets’ high level tackling team.  The Jets can get pressure from variety of places (LB Calvin Pace – team leading 8 sacks,  LB Bryan Thomas, DE Shaun Ellis and others), but the key hitting the quarterback on every pass play – ala Rex Ryan’s Father Buddy Ryan’s former Eagles defenses of the late 1980’s – so Revis (6 INTs, which was 3^rd in the AFC) and the rest of the secondary can get turnovers. 

On defense, the Colts will have to apply pressure from DE Dwight Freeney (13.5 sacks) and the rest of their D-line as Jets rookie QB Mark Sanchez (regular season stats: 196-364, 2444 yards, 12 TDs, 20 INTs and 63.0 QB rating) is essentially a caretaker right now.  The goal of Jets’ offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer is to pound the rock by his huge offensive line filled with current and former Pro Bowl players (center Nick Mangold, guard Alan Faneca, OT Damien Woody, and OT D’Brickshaw Ferguson) while making the youngster throw 20 times or less.  However Freeney and the rest of the Colts small and quick defense will need to shutdown Jones and Greene as the Jets love to use their ground attack on the way to “ugly” wins.  Last week , the Colts shut down the Ravens’ powerful running game on their way to a 20-3 win.  And Indianapolis will need another strong performance this Sunday against the Jets’ top-ranked ground attack (172.3 yards per game).  Of last week’s effort against the Ravens, Caldwell said, “Our defense did not allow them to move the ball and get in a position to score.  They just did a great job overall.”  Watch for Colts’ safety Antoine Bethea (4 INTs in 2009) as the former Howard University hard-hitter has taken over for injured former Pro Bowl player Bob Sanders.

There is no love lost between these two teams going back a ways  as the Jets will forever be known as the team that put the AFL on the map in 1968 by beating the old Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl III in Miami, Florida.  These two teams have met two other times in the postseason with the Jets’ currently holding a 2-0 edge, but the Colts own a 40-26 edge in the regular season series.  And now the Colts and Jets are firmly at the center of the national “Rest or Play to win down the stretch” debate. 

LV’s Pick:  This is a tough one as every bone in my body wants to say that the Jets are red-hot while the Colts just want to prove everyone wrong about “resting” players to win.  The absolute key to this game will be the Colts ability to take away the Jets’ NFL leading running game and thus forcing Sanchez to beat them.  The Jets are a tough team, but I just don’t believe you can hide your quarterback in the playoffs.  I believe that the Colts will find a way to force Sanchez to make plays and that will make all the difference – Colts 27, Jets 20

Lloyd Vance is a Sr. NFL Writer for Taking It to the House and an award-winning member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA)

2009 NFL Conference Championship Round Preview

Everything will be on the line “Championship Sunday” as the Colts (TE Dallas Clark pictured) take on the Jets in the AFC Championship and the Vikings square off with the Saints in the NFC Championship

The Conference Championships of the 90th NFL Season, titled “Own the Moment”, are upon us and for the final four teams (Indianapolis Colts, New York Jets, New Orleans Saints, and Minnesota Vikings) it is time to show their mettle, in order to achieve their goal of playing in Super Bowl XLIV in South Florida. 

For a long time this year’s Super Bowl match-up seemed destined to be the NFL’s two undefeated teams through 14 weeks, the Colts and Saints, meeting in an 18-0 undefeated showdown.  Though the match-up could still materialize, sans the undefeated part, there is no denying that the 2009 NFL Season has truly been a wild rollercoaster type affair.  Not even the best prognosticators could have predicted two undefeated 13-0 teams through 14 weeks (first time ever), two rookie head coaches squaring off in the AFC Championship Game, the NY Jets going from last season’s Brett Favre led collapse to making the Conference Championship round, Favre unretiring and looking like the Vikings’ last piece for Super Bowl glory, and many other storylines that flipped the script on NFL history. 

Unfortunately last week’s divisional round was very ho-hum as the higher seeded Colts, Saints, and Vikings all won by double-digits.  Only the Jets-Chargers game produced a competitive battle, where rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez — only the 4^th rookie quarterback to start in the Conference Championship since 1970 – led the J-E-T-S to the next round.  But there is no denying that this year’s NFL Final Four has produced two marquee games that feature some great storylines. 

These extraordinary teams have a combined regular/postseason winning percentage of 78% — combined record is 53-15. And did I mention this Sunday’s action on the field will feature the NFL’s career leader in quarterback wins and touchdown passes (Brett Favre), the NFL’s only 4-time MVP (Peyton Manning), the NFL’s number one rushing attack and defense (NY Jets) plus the NFL’s regular season passing touchdowns leader (Drew Brees – 34 TDs).

In Sunday’s early game, the Indianapolis Colts (15-2) will attempt to wipe away the nasty taste of their first defeat of the season, a 29-15 loss to the NY Jets in Week 15, and justify their “resting” players philosophy by winning a rematch this weekend in Indy.  You know irrate Colts’ fans, who have been ballistic since the team used back-ups in the Week 15 loss to the NY Jets, want revenge on Rex Ryan’s brash young upstart team. 

This game also has some of the same subplots of the historic Super Bowl III game between these two teams  — a heavy underdog Jets team, a young borderline-cocky NY Jets quarterback, a fiery Jets’ defense led by a Ryan, a good Jets’ running game and defense going against the an established team with a great record over a decade with a future Hall of Famer (Johnny Unitas) on their roster.  The Jets’ 16-7 win in Super Bowl III over 40 years ago put the AFL on the map and a win by the 2009 version of the J-E-T-S in the AFC Championship Game would be huge, but sorry…not historic. 

As good as the anticipation for the Colts-Jets “Rest-Gate” rematch game has been, the majority of NFL fans that I have talked to — via Twitter, email, and radio – all are looking more forward to the NFC Championship Game featuring the No. 1 seeded Saints against the No. 2 seeded Vikings.  After Week 12 of the 2009 NFL season, this match-up seemed a no-brainer, but both teams led by a pinball machine offense and an opportunistic defense had their moments where doubt crept into the conversation.  However both teams last week put up huge points on offense and their pass rushes were fierce in dominant wins over the Cardinals and Cowboys respectively.  So everyone is anticipating  a shootout in  the Super Dome between Pro Bowl quarterbacks Drew Brees and Brett Favre as the NFC Championship is on the line.

With three of the NFL’s best teams playing on Sunday, there is a distinct feeling that the cream of the NFL has risen to the top.  There is even a chance of the NFL’s two number one seeded teams can meet in the Super Bowl for first time since the 1993 season (Dallas and Buffalo).  Of course with the majority of the top teams still being in the playoff hunt, some NFL fans are asking, “Has parity finally left the NFL?”  I am not sure, but while some people like teams like the 2008 Arizona Cardinals going from a poor 9-7 regular season to the Super Bowl, it is wasn’t for me.  Though it has been nice to see Wildcard Round winners taking home three of the last four Super Bowl titles.  As someone who grew-up watching  perennial Super Bowl contenders like the Steelers, Dolphins, Niners, Cowboys, and Raiders serving as the bully for the rest of the NFL, I like watching the best teams fight it out.  Nothing against the upstart NY Jets, who are trying to match the 2007 NY Giants as a Cinderella team made good.  But I have always believed having the top teams in the Conference Championship round leads to more competitive games.

Whatever happens in this Sunday’s games, this round of the playoffs is truly special as the NFL’s junior prizes — conference championship trophies (George Halas Trophy for the NFC and Lamar Hunt Trophy for the AFC) — and a trip to the Super Bowl are all on the line.  However players on all four teams better focus on first winning this Sunday before looking ahead to confetti laced on-field celebrations and planning trips to Super Bowl XLIV in South Florida.  All the prepartion that the players and coaches have been through from OTA’s to training camp to the long grueling 17-week regular season, and two playoff rounds all hangs in the balance.  As Minnesota Vikings quarterback Brett Favre recently said about his team trying to achieve their goal of making the Super Bowl, “This is what I came back for”. 

Some Lloyd’s Leftovers for the Conference Championship Round:

NFL Television numbers support that the league is more popular than ever — There is no doubt that all of the excitement from the 2009 NFL season kept fans glued to their televisions and Football fans across America tuned into NFL games in the largest numbers in two decades.  According to Nielsen Media Research, the average 2009 regular-season game was watched by 16.6 million viewers – up 2 million viewers per game from last year and the NFL’s highest viewership average since 1990 (16.7 million), before the explosion of viewer choice on television and online.

Jets quarterback attempting to enter new rookie ground — New York Jets rookie head coach Rex Ryan and his rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez can reach two milestones when they play Indianapolis Colts on Sundday.  Sanchez can become the first rookie quarterback to lead his teawm to the Super Bowl  — already tied with Ravens’ quarterback Joe Flacco, who won two playoff games on the way to the AFC Championship game  in 2008.) and Ryan can become only the sixth rookie head coach to reach that mark.

Ryan and Caldwell make history – When the Jets and Colts meet in the AFC Championship, their respective head coaches (Rex Ryan and Jim Caldwell) will become the first two rookie head coaches to oppose each other in the game.  In a great non-story, Caldwell if his team wins will be the 3rd African American head coach to lead his team into football’s biggest game – will join Tony Dungy and Lovie Smith, who opposed each other in Super Bowl XLI.  After the Jets’ divisional round win over the Chargers, Ryan became the sixth rookie head coach in the Super Bowl era to win at least two playoff games.  But this is a much bigger prize and with the win, the winning coach will become the fifth rookie head coach to lead his team into the Super Bowl.  . 

Favre to add to his legacy – Certain Hall of Famer and Minnesota Vikings QB Brett Favre will not only be looking for a win against the Saints on Sunday.  But the NFC Championship Game  is an opportunity for him to extend his historic playoff numbers.  No. 4 ranks first in NFL playoff history in completions, and attempts.  But he is still second in passing yards and touchdown passes.  Favre needs 224 yards and three touchdowns to set postseason records in each passing category.  But getting a win against the Saints may prove to be tough for the graybeard passer, who 2-2 for his career in the NFC Championship Game including throwing a bad interception to end the 2007 rendition against the NY Giants.

With both No.1 seeds (Saints and Colts)  in action, we will see this Sunday if the trend of the top seeds in each conference  seeds not making it to the Super Bowl holds true.  Hard to believe it has been sixteen seasons since the last time two No. 1 seeds faced each other in Super Bowl (1993 season, Buffalo vs. Dallas in Super Bowl XXVIII).  But remember, since 1990 only 17 of 36 number one seeds in the playoffs have made it to the Super Bowl with only 8 of those teams winning it all. 

Not surprisingly both home teams (Saints and Colts) are favored this week by Vegas –- Saints are a 3.5-point favorite while the Colts are a suprising 9-point  favorite over the underdog Jets. Everyone including yours truly will be pontificating on what will happen, but luckily the games will be played on the field and anything can happen — Any Given Sunday…right??  “It’s the playoffs, anything can happen” said New York Jets rookie head coach Rex Ryan this week.

My predictions are to follow and one game I have strong feelings about while the other is a lot tougher to pick.  But as is the case with most games, I still believe time-tested playoff tenants of Strong Quarterback Play (i.e. Taking Care of the Football), Good Attacking Defense causing turnovers, a Balanced Offensive Attack based first in the Run, Sound Special Teams Play, Limiting Penalties/Turnovers, and just plain “Want-to”  will be the key determinants in all of the team’s fortunes this Sunday.

2009 NFL Playoffs Championship Round Games

NEW YORK JETS (11-7) at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (15-2) (Sunday, CBS, 3:00 PM ET)      

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (13-4) at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (14-3) (Sunday, FOX, 6:40 PM ET) 

 

Lloyd Vance is a Sr. NFL Writer for Taking It to the House and an award-winning member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA)

NFL CBA-related Q & A

NFLPA head DeMaurice Smith (pictured) and NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell will soon be at the negotiating table to discuss the NFL’s soon to be expiring CBA With the 2009 NFL Playoffs moving to the Conference Championship Round this weekend, everyone associated with the league including fans are starting to wonder about the impending Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) labor negotiations.  NFL Free Agency is scheduled to start on March 5th, but before that the NFL and the NFLPA must see if they can work out an extension of the current deal CBA –  set to expire in March 2011.  If no CBA extension or new deal is worked out, there is the likely scenario of an uncapped year in 2010 and an owner imposed “lock-out” in 2011 (i.e. No Football that season).  We will have to see if NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell and his counterpart, NFLPA head DeMaurice Smith, can come to the table and sort this mess out by March 2010.  But from what the people I have talked to have said is that the world’s greatest sports league has a very high chance of having it’s first labor unrest since the very ugly 1987 Strike season. In an attempt to bring NFL fans and everyone else up to speed regarding the multifaceted Collective Bargaining Agreement, the league this week released the following Q&A data: Q. When does the CBA expire should there be no extension to the agreement? A. In March of 2011. Q. Will there be a college draft in 2011? A. Yes. Q. What is the “Final League Year” in the current agreement? A. The “Final League Year” is the term used in the CBA to refer to the last year of the agreement. Without a further extension of the CBA, the “Final League Year” would be the 2010 League Year, which begins on March 5. Q. What are the differences between the “Final League Year” and any other “League Year?” A. The principal differences are that in the “Final League Year” there is no salary cap and there are substantial additional restrictions on player free agency and reductions in player benefits. Q. Are current player benefits affected in the Final League Year? A. We expect current player benefits to decline in the Final League Year. The union agreed that in the Final League Year, clubs would be relieved of their obligation to fund numerous benefit programs. Examples include second career savings (401K), player annuity, severance pay and performance-based pay. The total league-wide contributions to such plans in 2009, the last capped year, were in excess of $325 million or more than $10 million per club. Q. Are retired player benefits affected in the Final League Year? A. Commissioner Goodell has stated in a letter to the NFL Alumni Association Board of Directors that there will be no reduction in pension or disability payments to retired players during the Final League Year (2010). Since at least the fall of 2007, NFL owners have consistently agreed and planned that they will not reduce the funding for pension or disability benefits for retired players. Nor will they reduce funding for the 88 Plan during the Final League Year. Q. What determines an unrestricted free agent in the Final League Year (2010)? A. In capped seasons, a player whose contract has expired becomes an unrestricted free agent if he has four or more accrued seasons. In the Final League Year (2010), a player whose contract has expired becomes an unrestricted free agent only if he has six or more accrued seasons. An unrestricted free agent is free to sign with any club with no compensation owed to his old club. Q. What determines whether a player is a restricted free agent in the “Final League Year?” A. In capped seasons, a player whose contract expires becomes a restricted free agent if he has three accrued seasons. In the Final League Year (2010), a player whose contract expires becomes a restricted free agent if he has three, four or five accrued seasons. The first refusal/compensation rights of restricted free agents remain unchanged in the Final League Year. Q. In addition to the right to designate a franchise (or transition) player each capped year, can clubs designate additional players in the Final League Year? A. Yes, one additional player can be tagged. In capped years, a club may designate a franchise player or a transition player. In the final league year (2010), a club may designate one additional transition player. A transition player must be offered a minimum of the average of the top 10 salaries of the prior season at the player’s position or 120 percent of the player’s prior year’s salary, whichever is greater. A transition player designation gives the club a first-refusal right to match within seven days an offer sheet given to the player by another club after his contract expires. If the club matches, it retains the player. If it does not match, it receives no draft pick compensation from that club. Q. What is the Final Eight Plan? A. During the Final League Year, the eight clubs that make the Divisional Playoffs in the previous season have additional restrictions that limit their ability to sign unrestricted free agents from other clubs. In general, the four clubs participating in the championship games are limited in the number of free agents that they may sign; the limit is determined by the number of their own free agents signing with other clubs. They cannot sign any UFAs unless one of theirs is signed by another team. For the four clubs that lost in the Divisional Playoffs, in addition to having the ability to sign free agents based on the number of their own free agents signing with other clubs, they may also sign players based on specific financial parameters. Those four only will be permitted to sign one unrestricted free agent for $5.5 million (estimated) or more in year one of the contract, plus the number of their UFAs who sign with another team. They also can sign any unrestricted free agents for less than $3.7 (estimated) million in year one of the contract with limitations on the per year increases. In the case of all final eight teams, the first year salary of UFAs they sign to replace those lost cannot exceed the first year salary of the player lost with limitations on the per year increases. Q. Is there an Entering Player Pool in the Final League Year? A. There may be. The CBA provides that the league has the unilateral right to keep or eliminate the rookie pool in the Final League Year. Q. Is there a Minimum Team Salary in the Final League Year? A. There is no Minimum Team Salary in the Final League Year. The Minimum Team Salary in 2009 is $107,748,000, meaning each team is required to allocate more than $107 million to player costs (not including benefits). The team salary cap in 2009 was $123 million. Q. Are there individual player minimum salaries in the Final League Year? A. Yes, but they rise at a rate somewhat slower than player minimum salaries rise in capped years. Q. Do any player contract rules from capped years remain in place for the Final League Year? A. Yes, some rules like the “30% increase rule” are still in effect in the Final League Year for player contracts signed in capped years. That rule restricts salary increases from 2009 to 2010. For example: a player with a $500,000 salary in 2009 would be limited to annual salary increases of $150,000 ($500,000 x 30%) beginning in 2010.

 

Lloyd Vance is a Sr. NFL Writer for Taking It to the House and an award-winning member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA).